The 2025 NFL playoffs kicked off this Saturday, and even a casual fan would tell you the Wild Card round brought a little bit of everything in regards to exciting results: An overmatched David known as the Broncos ventured into the stadium of Goliath in Buffalo and got blown out of the water. You had games that everyone thought would be competitive to the final play that ended up being entirely one-sided; The Eagles completely dismantled the Packers who were a ghost of the team fans saw only a couple months earlier, unable to penetrate the staunch Philadelphia defense. But the highlight of the weekend was a story you usually only see in the movies: a rookie quarterback looking to prove he and his team’s worth winning a thriller against a division champion, as the Commanders triumphed against the Buccaneers in their first playoff win since 2006, a game that featured 5 lead changes. With the excitement of the first round still bubbling, what can we expect from the divisional round as the top seeds of each conference get ready to enter the fray? Here are my comments, analysis, and advice for anyone looking to have a little extra riding on the matchups*.
*Odds and lines are subject to change
AFC
#3 Baltimore Ravens (-120) at #2 Buffalo Bills (+100)
January 19th, 6:30 p.m. on NFL+
This will be the game to watch in the AFC, as despite what the seeding says many fans will agree that these are the two best teams in the conference, if not the whole league. The Ravens laid an absolute thrashing on the Steelers Saturday night, leading 21-0 at halftime with over 300 yards on offense against a reputable defense. The Pittsburgh front line had no answer for running back Derrick Henry who had his way the whole game, rushing for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. They may have only won by 14, but once the game concluded it felt like that they had won by more than 40 against an embarrassed Steelers team. They will need to replicate that performance against the juggernaut Bills however, who exploited their opponent even more on Sunday, steamrolling the Broncos 31-7 at home. Quarterback Josh Allen is trying to prove that he can win in the biggest moments, which has been one of the biggest stains on his otherwise impressive career. Many believe his Bills finally have what it takes to make it over the hump and into the Super Bowl, but a huge test awaits him next Sunday in the form of fellow MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and the run-dominant Ravens who will relentlessly attack Buffalo’s mediocre rushing defense.
Betting lock of the game: Josh Allen over 240.5 passing yards (-115)
Who knows how dominant the Ravens would be if they had even a competent passing defense; The Baltimore secondary ranks in the bottom 3 of all defenses in most important statistics, such as yards allowed, first downs allowed, and big plays against. It’s in stark contrast to their dominant rushing defense who conversely ranks in the top 3 in the same categories. The Bills will most likely move away from running backs James Cook and Ty Johnson on Sunday in favor of an air attack, setting up Josh Allen to smash the over on his passing yards projection.
#4 Houston Texans (+375) at #1 Kansas City Chiefs (-500)
January 18th, 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Football fans agree on things about as often as a minimum wage retail worker enjoys hearing “All I Want for Christmas is You” during the holiday season, which is virtually never. However, every NFL viewer outside of Kansas City will be cheering for the Texans this Saturday who face the top-seeded, heavily favored Chiefs and the league’s poster boy in Patrick Mahomes. A laundry list of excuses has been created for the Chiefs finishing with the best regular season record, ranging from the usual referee bias and Taylor Swift to claims that the team is dabbling in the dark arts. Regardless of how unbelievable some of Kansas City’s wins were this season, there’s no question that the back-to-back reigning champions led by their perennial MVP candidate quarterback are a force to be reckoned with. Although the numbers say that the Chiefs are an above-average team at best, what the numbers don’t show is the amount of star power this team has. 3 Chiefs made 1st team All-Pro: future hall-of-famer defensive tackle Chris Jones and offensive linemen Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuney. Star cornerback Trent McDuffie also earned 2nd team honors, meaning the squad has certified superstars on all sides of the ball, led by a QB aiming to contend with Tom Brady for the greatest of all time. A tough matchup against Houston will be the true teller of whether this season has been one of luck or aptitude for the Chiefs.
Betting lock of the game: Houston Texans +8.5 (-110)
I don’t usually question the judgement of the Vegas linesetters when it comes to spreads, but I think this one is a little bit of a head-scratcher. The Texans have an elite running back in Joe Mixon that will be up against an average rushing defense that he will surely penetrate for big plays the whole night. Although Houston is missing key difference-makers on offense such as Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, their defense is sure to cause problems for the Chiefs’ star-studded offense, particularly in the passing game with Will Anderson Jr. coming off the edge and 1st team All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr. locking up receivers. I can see this game being decided by one possession, possibly even by 3 points or less, so I’m absolutely taking the Texans to cover the spread.
NFC
#4 Los Angeles Rams (+225) at #2 Philadelphia Eagles (-275)
January 19th, 3:00 p.m. on NBC
Two teams that easily dispatched their opponents last week will face off Sunday in what’s sure to be a slugfest in South Philly, judging by their last meeting in November when the Eagles showcased their offensive dominance in a 37-20 drubbing. The game was most memorable for being superstar running back Saquon Barkley’s magnum opus of the season, rushing for an absurd 255 yards and 2 touchdowns. There’s no reason to think that the Eagles won’t put forth a similar game plan this weekend, letting Saquon bully a subpar Rams defensive line in order to anchor a Philadelphia offense that has thrived controlling the clock and beating their opponents through time of possession. Pair that with the #1 overall ranked defense in the league, and the Rams have a seemingly insurmountable wall blocking them from making an unlikely NFC Championship game appearance. Although I am biased as an Eagles fan and have no doubt they’ll win (which will happen), the Rams have an outside chance to stay competitive and possibly even steal this game. Critics cast doubts on the Eagles offense after their performance against the Green Bay Packers, pointing out how the offense went stagnant at critical points that would have run up the score line even more. In the end it was inconsequential due to their stellar defensive play, but if Los Angeles capitalizes on all of their offensive chances, they could stay in this game as long as their defense makes some stops.
Betting lock of the game: DeVonta Smith over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
Smith was sidelined with a hamstring injury the last time these two faced off in Week 12, so Sunday will be the first time the Rams see him in action this season. Smith has been hot for weeks; he averaged 93 yards and 8 catches per game in the final 3 regular season contests and added another 55 yards on 4 receptions against Green Bay. He appears to have built an improved rapport with quarterback Jalen Hurts who has been feeding him the ball more as of late, and it’s translating into impressive stat lines and consistent points on the board for Philadelphia. There’s no doubt that Hurts and the Eagles will once again lean on Smith in order to take advantage of a weak Los Angeles passing defense that is among the worst in the league in receiving yards and touchdowns allowed to opponents.
#6 Washington Commanders (+400) at #1 Detroit Lions (-550)
January 18th, 8:00 p.m. on FOX
Even though as a rival fan it’s in my nature to hate the Commanders, I can’t help but pity them as they head into their divisional matchup against the top seed Detroit Lions. Washington is outmatched at nearly every position on the field, and their players’ playoff experience pales in comparison to that of the Lions’, who have been a force in the NFC for the past few years. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels will be forced to create something from virtually nothing, as the Lions will stack the box in order to plug Brian Robinson Jr. and the run game to force Daniels to make throws downfield to a secondary that ranked 5th in the league in interceptions. Detroit is also sure to take advantage on the other side of the ball, utilizing the best backfield duo in the NFL of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to capitalize on Washington’s abysmal run defense which ranked 30th in the league. The Lions also were #1 in the NFL in points per game during the regular season, dropping an average of 33.2 points a contest, a number that is intimidating to say the least for a below average Commanders defense. However, if Washington wants to stay in this game for the long run they must continue their offensive performance they put on display against Tampa Bay and capitalize on any mistakes the Lions make.
Betting lock of the game: Jahmyr Gibbs over 0.5 rushing touchdowns (-170)
As I mentioned before, the Lions are going to be a ground-and-pound football team against the Commanders on Saturday, unleashing the best backfield in football in Gibbs and Montgomery on one of the league’s worst run defenses. It is also worth noting that the latter is not completely confirmed to be active for the game despite optimism from the team that he will play, so on the off chance that only Gibbs suits up I would be inclined to shift the wager to over 1.5 rushing TDs at +275. Regardless of whether or not that transpires, it is a virtual guarantee that Gibbs will find himself in the endzone at least once on Saturday.