1 Kentucky vs 3 Notre Dame

The only, and I mean the only way Notre Dame can pull this upset is to go absolutely ballistic from the three point line. They simply can not compete with the bigs in the paint with Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein and Co. loitering around. The Fighting Irish has shot 39.2% from the arc this season, as they have four shooters that shot over forty percent behind the line, with Pat Connaughton leading the way with 46.2% from 216 attempts. Realistically, they will need to hit about 15 threes to come out alive, but it will be by no means easy, as Kentucky has limited their opponent to 26.7% from the arc this year and ridiculous 17.8% in the tournament. To get these shooters open in four out and one in offense, Jerian Grant needs to play the game of his life. It is his responsibility to penetrate the Wildcats’ perimeter defense and kick the ball out to his shooter. He also needs to score on his own to make Kentucky commit to his drives rather than sticking to the shooter. He also needs to show up as the lockdown defender since only other player that can hang around with the Harrison twins and Devin Booker is aforementioned Connaughton. It will be impossible for the Fighting Irish to dominate the paint, they must box out and battle for some rebounds against the big Wildcats to have a chance. As for Kentucky, they just need to play like they did all year long. Few teams can match their size, and Notre Dame is not one of them. They absolutely embarrassed a good West Virginia team and look them to continue their assault against a small team.

Prediction: Kentucky over Notre Dame

1 Wisconsin vs 2 Arizona

Last year, Wisconsin broke Arizona’s heart after Nick Johnson couldn’t even get a shot off with two seconds left after five minutes of review. This year, Arizona has a chance to reverse the role and end Wisconsin’s path to championship. This will be the true test for the freshman phenom Stanley Johnson, as he needs to put the team on the back and take charge. He has a very favorable matchup, as no one particular can really guard him. Josh Gasser, Wisconsin’s best on-ball defender and the man that shut down Marcus Paige, gives up two inches and thirty pounds, and Sam Dekker, while he can match up him physically, he will only be on him if the Badgers go big or the Wildcats go small. Johnson is more than capable of taking over the game, and Arizona will need him to dominate. However, Wisconsin is so tough to stop for anyone. They have the most efficient offense in the league, averaging 125.8 points per 100 possession. While they only shoot 35.7% from the arc, they have plenty of players who can knock down the long rangers, like Dekker, Gasser, Kaminsky, Hayes, and Koenig, their best shooter. While Frank the Tank is an imposing figure, both the Ducks and the Tar Heels were able to neutralize the big man. With 7-footer Kaleb Tarczewski leading the defense that was ranked third in adjusted defensive efficiency, Kaminsky needs to step up as his team is at its best with him operating and creating in the low block. Even though Kaminsky is the potential player of the year and the alpha dog of Wisconsin, the emergence of Sam Dekker is impossible to ignore. just like how Kaminsky emerged as an elite player after last year’s tournament, Dekker is following his footstep. The 6’ 9” junior forward has dominated the both sides of the ball and has statistically been the best player in the team. If Arizona can check both Kaminsky and Dekker while limiting the Badgers’ outside shooting, they can march on to victory. However, to ask them to cover for all the weapons Wisconsin have at its disposal is too much.

Prediction: Wisconsin over Arizona

4 Louisville vs 7 Michigan State

A few days ago I said that Montrezl Harrell would have to have a huge game in order to combat the Cardinals’ lack of outside shooting, and the junior forward responded with 24 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and a block while playing all 40 minutes of the game.  Louisville has a chance to win this game between Harrell and high scoring guard Terry Rozier, who can match the Spartans’ guard Travis Trice and forward Branden Dawson step for step. The deciding battle will come down between Spartans forward Denzel Valentine and Louisville forward Wayne Blackshear. Valentine was huge against N.C State, scoring 18 points and moving the ball fluidly amidst the Michigan State offense. A huge part of Michigan State’s 7-1 record in it’s last 8 games – and it’s deep tournament run – Valentine’s ability to initiate the offense as a point forward adds a dimension to the Spartan’s offense that is hard to beat. If Blackshear can contain him and make him work, there is a chance Louisville can pull out the victory. But with better depth and excellent momentum, Michigan State has the edge in this matchup.

Prediction: Michigan State over Louisville

2 Gonzaga vs 1 Duke

This game has the chance to be the most fast-paced, high-scoring, defensively deficient, exciting game of the entire tournament so far. Duke has been so offensively dominant this far, it’s hard to not consider them the favorite, but Gonzaga has been excellent as well. The Blue Devils have to be slightly concerned with Jahlil Okafor in this one, because the star center was largely ineffective against Utah, only posting 6 points with 4 turnovers while scoring no second half points. The Utes 7-0 center Jakob Poeltl was able to combat Okafor’s size in the post, and Okafor now has to face Gonzaga’s 7-1 Przemek Karnowski. The Bulldogs also bring 6-10 freshman Domantas Sabonis off the bench, so they have the ability to make Okafor work in the post on every possession. Both teams are coming off of terrible shooting nights from behind the arc (Gonzaga 3-19, Duke 3-9) in their previous games, and whichever team gets hot will pull out the win. I like Duke because of both forward Justise Winslow and Coach Mike Krzyzewski. Winslow has been the difference maker in Duke’s tournament games this year, and I don’t think anyone on Gonzaga’s roster can keep up with him in the open court. And if anyone can figure out how to stop Gonzaga’s shooters and star player, forward Kyle Wiltjer, it’s Coach K.

Prediction: Duke over Gonzaga